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From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective

Author

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  • Brent Bundick
  • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Abstract

We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes "shortfalls" rather than "deviations" of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a shortfalls rule raises average inflation and nominal policy rates by 90 basis points, reduces the likelihood of a binding zero lower bound, and implies a steeper and nonlinear Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Bundick & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2026. "From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 69-101, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:18:y:2026:i:1:p:69-101
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210381
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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