Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion

How susceptible to contagion are bank deposits associated with financial inclusion? To shed light on this question, we analyze the behavior of deposits of different account sizes around three significant bank closures in the Philippines. When we look at the three events by applying difference-in-difference regressions to a dataset that distinguishes between small and large deposits at the town level, we find no evidence that the closure of a large bank leads to withdrawals by depositors at other banks nearby, whether the depositors are large or small. For two of the events, we do find some evidence that depositors, both large and small, anticipate that their bank is about to fail, and they start to withdraw before the bank is closed. With more comprehensive branch-level data for one of the events, we find that a bank closure does lead to reduced deposits at bank branches nearby. All this suggests that, while a bank failure can lead to contagion, the behavior of small depositors is no different from that of large depositors, and thus financial inclusion is unlikely to add to financial instability.