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Using changes in auction maturity sectors to help identify the impact of QE on gilt yields

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Ryan

    () (Bank of England)

  • McLaren, Nick

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

Using the information contained in economic news and data releases, financial markets have widely anticipated recent Monetary Policy Committee announcements about the amount of assets the Bank of England intends to purchase as part of its quantitative easing (QE) policy. This makes it increasingly difficult to identify the impact of QE on gilt yields. This article uses three ‘natural experiments’ associated with operational changes to the distribution of gilt purchases — in March 2009, August 2009 and February 2012 — to help overcome this identification problem. It finds that the ‘local supply’ channel, which can be identified using these events, can explain around half of the total impact of QE on gilt yields. The estimates of this effect are broadly similar across the three events; so the strength of this channel of QE does not appear to have changed significantly since gilt purchases were introduced in early 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Ryan & McLaren, Nick, 2012. "Using changes in auction maturity sectors to help identify the impact of QE on gilt yields," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 129-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael A. S. Joyce & Nick McLaren & Chris Young, 2012. "Quantitative easing in the United Kingdom: evidence from financial markets on QE1 and QE2," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 671-701, WINTER.
    2. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2016. "Impact of the asset purchase programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Working Paper Series 1939, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Joyce, Michael & Liu, Zhuoshi & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Institutional investor portfolio allocation, quantitative easing and the global financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 510, Bank of England.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:109-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    8. Jack Meaning & James Warren, 2015. "The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy in UK Government Debt Markets," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 234(1), pages 40-47, November.
    9. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    10. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    11. Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 48-63, March.
    12. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    13. Kathi Schlepper & Heiko Hofer & Ryan Riordan & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," BIS Working Papers 625, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Andreas Tischbirek, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Currency Union with Segmentation in the Market for Government Debt," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 16.16, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    15. Michael Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing," NBER Working Papers 22581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Butt, Nicholas & Domit, Silvia & McLeay, Michael & Thomas, Ryland & Kirkham, Lewis, 2012. "What can the money data tell us about the impact of QE?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 321-331.
    17. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Francis Breedon & Philip Turner, 2016. "On the transactions costs ofquantitative easing," BIS Working Papers 571, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    20. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    21. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
    22. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

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