IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/13-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Young Chang
  • Bruno Feunou

Abstract

We measure uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s future policy rates using implied volatility computed from interest rate option prices and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following the most important policy actions taken by the Bank of Canada as a response to the financial crisis of 2007-08, such as the conditional commitment of 2009-10, the unscheduled cut in the target rate coordinated with other major central banks, and the introduction of term purchase and resale agreements. We also find that, on average, uncertainty decreases following the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcements. Furthermore, our measures of policy rate uncertainty improve the estimation of policy rate expectations from overnight index swap (OIS) rates by predicting the risk premium in the OIS market.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/wp2013-37.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec24.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Ferderer, J. Peter & Zalewski, David A., 1994. "Uncertainty as a Propagating Force in The Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(04), pages 825-849, December.
    5. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    7. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "Using implied volatility to measure uncertainty about interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 407-425.
    8. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    9. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508.
    10. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    11. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    12. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-562.
    13. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    14. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
    15. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    16. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
    17. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    18. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    20. Amin, Kaushik I & Ng, Victor K, 1997. "Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options: A New Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 333-367.
    21. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    22. Christine Fay & Toni Gravelle, 2010. "Has the Inclusion of Forward-Looking Statements in Monetary Policy Communications Made the Bank of Canada More Transparent?," Discussion Papers 10-15, Bank of Canada.
    23. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    24. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
    25. Courtadon, Georges, 1982. "The Pricing of Options on Default-Free Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 75-100, March.
    26. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1203-1242, December.
    27. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Lori Rennison, 2015. "Forward Guidance at the Effective Lower Bound: International Experience," Discussion Papers 15-15, Bank of Canada.
    2. Glauco De Vita & Wolfram Berger, 2015. "'Forward guidance': new monetary policy instrument or esoteric fad?," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 289-296, July.
    3. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?," Staff Working Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    4. Margaux MacDonald & Michal Popiel, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 1367, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    5. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," BIS Working Papers 720, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Cole, Stephen, 2015. "Learning and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance," MPRA Paper 65207, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit and credit aggregates; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.