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Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures

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  • John B. Carlson
  • Ben R. Craig
  • William R. Melick

Abstract

This article demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest‐rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC allows for a very straightforward recovery of the implied PDF using ordinary‐least‐squares (OLS) estimation. This simple recovery method stands in contrast to the relatively complicated PDF recovery techniques developed for options written on assets such as equities, foreign exchange, or commodity futures, where the underlying prices are most appropriately modeled as being drawn from continuous distributions. The OLS estimation is used to recover PDFs for single FOMC meetings as well as PDFs for joint estimation of multiple FOMC meetings, and allows for the imposition of restrictions on the recovered probabilities, both within and across FOMC meetings. Finally, recovered probabilities are used to assess the impact of data releases and Fed communication on the perceived likelihood of actual policy outcomes. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:1203–1242, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1203-1242, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:25:y:2005:i:12:p:1203-1242
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    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Sultan, 2012. "Options on federal funds futures and interest rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 330-359, April.
    2. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 1-49.
    3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Ruch, Franz Ulrich, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations : Evidence from Emerging and Developed Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10564, The World Bank.
    4. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    5. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    6. Zhengyang Chen, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," 2019 Papers pch1858, Job Market Papers.
    7. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    8. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    9. Amine Bouden, 2008. "The Behavior Of The Implied Volatility Surface: Evidence From Crude Oil Futures Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mondher Bellalah & Jean-Luc Prigent & Jean-Michel Sahut & Georges Pariente & Olivier Levyne & Michel (ed.), Risk Management And Value Valuation and Asset Pricing, chapter 8, pages 151-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Bo Young Chang & Bruno Feunou, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Implied Volatility and Realized Volatility," Staff Working Papers 13-37, Bank of Canada.
    11. Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?," Staff Working Papers 17-60, Bank of Canada.
    12. Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen & German Molina & Enrique ter Horst, 2014. "A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities," Papers 1409.1956, arXiv.org.
    13. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Nov), pages 543-562.
    14. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty, positions of traders and changes in commodity futures prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 239-260, March.

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