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Calibration of Option-Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets

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  • Paul L. Fackler
  • Robert P. King

Abstract

A method for evaluating the reliability of option-based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept. Empirical tests using goodness-of-fit criteria are applied to four agricultural commodities. Results suggest that assessments in the corn and live cattle markets are reliable, but such assessments overstate the volatility of soybean prices and understate the location of hog prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul L. Fackler & Robert P. King, 1990. "Calibration of Option-Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 73-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:72:y:1990:i:1:p:73-83.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243146
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    Cited by:

    1. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    2. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    3. repec:oup:erevae:v:45:y:2018:i:1:p:121-142. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Genevre Covindassamy & Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    6. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
    7. David S. Bates, 1997. "Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options," NBER Working Papers 5894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. An-Sing Chen & Yan-Zhen Liu, 2008. "Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 605-617.
    9. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.

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