IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/oup/ajagec/v72y1990i1p73-83..html

Calibration of Option-Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  2. Liu, Xiaoquan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2007. "Closed-form transformations from risk-neutral to real-world distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1501-1520, May.
  3. Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen & German Molina & Enrique ter Horst, 2014. "A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities," Papers 1409.1956, arXiv.org.
  4. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  5. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, "undated". "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270920, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
  8. Julius Loermann, 2021. "The impact of CHF/EUR exchange rate uncertainty on Swiss exports to the Eurozone: evidence from a threshold VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1363-1385, March.
  9. Eidman, V., 1989. "Quantifying and managing risk in agriculture," 1989 Annual Conference, September 25-27, Bloemfontein, South Africa 314723, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  10. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
  11. Josep Puigvert-Gutiérrez & Rupert Vincent-Humphreys, 2012. "A Quantitative Mirror on the Euribor Market Using Implied Probability Density Functions," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, June.
  12. Schnitkey, Gary D. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H., 2002. "Evaluation Of Risk Reductions Associated With Multi-Periol Crop Insurance Products," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  13. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
  14. Andres Trujillo-Barrera & Philip Garcia & Mindy L Mallory, 2018. "Short-term price density forecasts in the lean hog futures market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 121-142.
  15. David Buschena & Kevin McNew, 2008. "Subsidized Options in a Thin Market: A Case Study of the Dairy Options Pilot Program Introduction," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 103-119.
  16. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
  17. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  18. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-079, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  19. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
  20. Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina G. & Robe, Michel A., 2016. "What Drives Volatility Expectations in Grain Markets?," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285861, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  21. Carl R. Zulauf & E. Neal Blue, 2003. "Has the Market's Estimate of Crop Price Variability Increased since the 1996 Farm Bill?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 145-153.
  22. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  23. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1203-1242, December.
  24. William R. Melick & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "Using options prices to infer PDF'S for asset prices: an application to oil prices during the Gulf crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 541, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
  26. Shaffer, John A. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 1999. "The Term Structure of Uncertainty Implied by Option Premia," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285747, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  27. David S. Bates, 1997. "Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options," NBER Working Papers 5894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. repec:wyi:journl:002064 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Umarov, Alisher & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2005. "Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  30. Julius Loermann, 2018. "The Impact of CHF/EUR Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Swiss Exports to the Eurozone: Evidence from a Threshold VAR," FIW Working Paper series 189, FIW, revised Feb 2019.
  31. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-470, August.
  32. An-Sing Chen & Yan-Zhen Liu, 2008. "Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 605-617.
  33. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  34. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2024. "Predictability of Exchange Rate Density Forecasts for Emerging Economies in the Short Run," Working Papers Series 588, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  35. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2010. "Theory of Storage and Option Pricing: Analyzing Determinants of Implied Skewness and Implied Kurtosis," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285313, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  36. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Analogy Based Valuation of Commodity Options," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 197334, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  37. Egorov, Alexei V. & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2006. "Validating forecasts of the joint probability density of bond yields: Can affine models beat random walk?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 255-284.
  38. Rupert de Vincent-Humphreys & Joseph Noss, 2012. "Estimating probability distributions of future asset prices: empirical transformations from option-implied risk-neutral to real-world density functions," Bank of England working papers 455, Bank of England.
  39. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres Trujillo- & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Density Forecasts of Lean Hog Futures Price," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285767, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  40. Clement, E. & Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2000. "Econometric specification of the risk neutral valuation model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 117-143.
  41. Buschena, David E. & Ziegler, Lee, 1999. "Reliability Of Options Markets For Crop Revenue Insurance Rating," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, December.
  42. Mazzocco, Michael A. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Sonka, Steven T., 1992. "The Role of Decision Maker Expectations in Valuing Climate Information," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 321338, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  43. Silva, Elvria & Kahl, Kandice, "undated". "Reliability Of Soybean And Corn Option-Based Probability Assessments As Option Markets Mature," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271196, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  44. Schmitz, Jochen & Ledebur, Oliver von, 2012. "The 2007 emerging corn price surge revisited – Was it expected or a large surprise?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123971, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  45. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Analogy based Valuation of Commodity Options," MPRA Paper 61083, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2020. "Option-Based Risk Aversion Indicators for Predicting Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 515, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.