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A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates

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  • Renne, Jean-Paul

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel interest rate model that presents simple analytical pricing formulas for interest rate-based derivatives, including swaps, futures, swaptions, caps and floors. Exploring the regime-switching feature of Markov chains, the proposed model focuses on discrete changes in the central bank policy rates – the main driver of short-term rate fluctuations. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed model generally outperforms other standard short-term rate models in fitting cross-sections of options prices. Moreover, the explicit nature of policy rates, to some extent, enables the model to infer risk-neutral probabilities of the central-bank rate decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:251:y:2016:i:3:p:873-887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.014
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    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:140-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cousin, Areski & Maatouk, Hassan & Rullière, Didier, 2016. "Kriging of financial term-structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 631-648.
    3. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Malgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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