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Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model

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  • IAN DEW‐BECKER

Abstract

New Keynesian model in which households have Epstein–Zin preferences with time‐varying risk aversion and the central bank has a time‐varying inflation target can match the dynamics of nominal bond prices in the U.S. economy well. The model generates a large steady‐state term spread and its fitting errors for bond yields are comparable to those obtained from a nonstructural three‐factor model, and one‐third smaller than in models with a constant inflation target or risk aversion. Including data on interest rates has large effects on variance decompositions, making investment technology shocks much less important than found in other recent papers.

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  • Ian Dew‐Becker, 2014. "Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 837-888, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:5:p:837-888
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12130
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    Cited by:

    1. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 364-389.
    2. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2017. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2017-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Alex Ilek & Irit Rozenshtrom, 2017. "The Term Premium in a Small Open Economy: A Micro-Founded Approach," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.06, Bank of Israel.
    5. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    6. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Stochastic discounting and the transmission of money supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2174, European Central Bank.
    7. repec:eee:reveco:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:333-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. TAKAMIZAWA, Hideyuki, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of Term Structures of Bonds and Equities," Working Paper Series G-1-19, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    10. Michael Wickens, 2015. "How Did We Get to Where We Are Now? Reflections on 50 Years of Macroeconomic and Financial Econometrics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 60-82, December.
    11. Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Tirskikh, Mikhail, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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