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Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model

  • Ferre De Graeve

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Maarten Dossche

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Marina Emiris

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Henri Sneessens

    (Catholic University of Louvain-La-Neuve)

  • Raf Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

We analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents - shareholders, bondholders and workers - that differ in participation in the capital market and in terms of risk aversion. Aggregate productivity and distribution risk are shared among these agents via the bond market and via an efficient labor contract. The result is a combination of volatile returns to capital and a highly cyclical consumption process for the shareholders, which are two important ingredients for generating high and countercyclical risk premiums. These risk premiums are consistent with a strong propagation mechanism through an elastic supply of labor, rigid real wages and a countercyclical labor share. We discuss the implications for the real and nominal component of the risk premium on equity and bonds. We show how these premiums react to changes in the volatility of the shocks, as experienced during the great moderation. We also analyze the effects of changes in monetary policy behavior and the resulting inflation dynamics.

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File URL: http://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp150En.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 150.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-25
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  4. Ferre De Graeve & Maarten Dossche & Marina Emiris & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2008. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Working Paper Research 150, National Bank of Belgium.
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  18. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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