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Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model

  • Ferre De Graeve

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Maarten Dossche

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Marina Emiris

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Henri Sneessens

    (Catholic University of Louvain-La-Neuve)

  • Raf Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

We analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents - shareholders, bondholders and workers - that differ in participation in the capital market and in terms of risk aversion. Aggregate productivity and distribution risk are shared among these agents via the bond market and via an efficient labor contract. The result is a combination of volatile returns to capital and a highly cyclical consumption process for the shareholders, which are two important ingredients for generating high and countercyclical risk premiums. These risk premiums are consistent with a strong propagation mechanism through an elastic supply of labor, rigid real wages and a countercyclical labor share. We discuss the implications for the real and nominal component of the risk premium on equity and bonds. We show how these premiums react to changes in the volatility of the shocks, as experienced during the great moderation. We also analyze the effects of changes in monetary policy behavior and the resulting inflation dynamics.

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File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp150en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 150.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-25
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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1711-1750, November.
  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
  4. Gomme, P. & Greenwood, J., 1992. "On the Cyclical Allocation of Risk," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9205, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  5. Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Insurance within the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1054-1087, October.
  6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk Premiums and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Paper Series 236, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "The C-CAPM without ex post data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 721-729, December.
  10. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 241-270.
  12. repec:oup:restud:v:78:y:2011:i:1:p:199-234 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Harald Uhlig, 2007. "Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-003a, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Luis M. Viceira & Adi Sunderam & John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2007. "A Multiplier Approach to Understanding the Macro Implications of Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 13555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
  18. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  19. repec:dgr:kubcen:199554 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  21. Boldrin, Michael & Horvath, Michael, 1995. "Labor Contracts and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 972-1004, October.
  22. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2010. "Redistributive shocks and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 931-948, November.
  23. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
  25. Martin Lettau & Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 79-99, January.
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