C-CAPM Without Ex Post Data
Survey and option data are used to take a new look at the equity premium puzzle. Survey data on equity returns (Livingston survey) shows much lower expected excess returns than ex post data. At the same time, option data (CBOE's VIX) indicates that investors overestimate the volatility of equity returns. Both facts reduce the puzzle. However, data on beliefs about output volatility (Survey of Professional Forecasters) shows marked overconfidence. On balance, the equity premium is somewhat less of a puzzle than in ex post data.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 589-607, December.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. " Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 921-31, September.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 68-123, 03.
- Hirshleifer, David, 2001.
"Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing,"
5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996.
"Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-265, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 1998. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Finance 9803002, EconWPA.
- M. J. Brennan, 1998. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(3), pages 295-306.
- Richard H. Thaler, 2000. "From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 133-141, Winter.
- Jack W. Wilson, 2002. "An Analysis of the S&P 500 Index and Cowles's Extensions: Price Indexes and Stock Returns, 18701999," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 505-534, July.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001.
"An Exploration of the Effects of Pessimism and Doubt on Asset Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
8132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000.
"Inflation Forecast Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
- Pearce, Douglas K, 1984. "An Empirical Analysis of Expected Stock Price Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 317-27, August.
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
- Timothy Cogley, 1998.
"Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium: evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium: evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 309-334, March.
- Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Robust-H-infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 7753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
- Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1113-1145, 06.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2005. "Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1673-1712, 08.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.