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Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Nir Jaimovich
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimismand overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, whereas overconfident agentsoverestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increasebusiness-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement and relative volatilities.In contrast, optimism is not a useful source of volatility in our model. (JEL: E3) (c) 2007 by the European Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 361-368, 04-05.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:5:y:2007:i:2-3:p:361-368
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    Cited by:

    1. Dave, Chetan & Malik, Samreen, 2017. "A tale of fat tails," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 293-317.
    2. Jacek Suda, 2013. "Belief shocks and the macroeconomy," Working papers 434, Banque de France.
    3. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    4. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    5. Yuriy Bilan & Maryna Brychko & Anna Buriak & Tetyana Vasilyeva, 2019. "Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138.
    6. Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Carlos J. García & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 645, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Lennart Erixon & Louise Johannesson, 2015. "Is the psychology of high profits detrimental to industrial renewal? Experimental evidence for the theory of transformation pressure," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 475-511, April.
    9. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2022. "Business cycle dynamics when neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are imperfectly observable," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    10. Carlos Garcia & Andrés Sagner, 2012. "Exceso de Toma de Riesgo Crediticio en Chile," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv280, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    11. Holden, Steinar, 2012. "Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models," Memorandum 25/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    12. Evgeniy Kutsenko & Ekaterina Islankina & Alexey Kindras, 2018. "Smart by Oneself? An Analysis of Russian Regional Innovation Strategies within the RIS3 Framework," Foresight and STI Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 25-45.
    13. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ioan Roxana, 2015. "The Influence Of Stock Market Investors’ Behavior On Business Cycles," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 136-144, December.
    15. Sylvain Leduc, 2010. "Confidence and the business cycle," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov22.
    16. Geetika Madaan & Sanjeet Singh, 2019. "An Analysis of Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision-Making," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 55-67, July.
    17. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2015. "The loan contract with costly state verification and subjective beliefs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 89-105.
    18. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2009. "Confidence of Agents and Market Frictions," MPRA Paper 21149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    21. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2015. "Over consumption. A horse race of Bayesian DSGE models," MPRA Paper 66445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Manel Mahjoubi & Jamel Eddine Henchiri, 2024. "The effect of policy uncertainty on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 429-441, May.
    24. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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