IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2010inov22n2010-35.html

Confidence and the business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a tightening of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc, 2010. "Confidence and the business cycle," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov22.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:nov22:n:2010-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/confidence-business-cycle/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2010-35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/frbsf/frbsf_let/frbsf_let_20101122.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/economic-letter-federal-reserve-bank-san-francisco-4960/confidence-business-cycle-633490
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    2. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 361-368, 04-05.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabe de Bondt, 2017. "Confidence and monetary policy transmission," EcoMod2017 10197, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Xiaohan & Samaniego, Roberto, 2022. "Business cycle dynamics when neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are imperfectly observable," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Anja Sebbesen & Harald Oberhofer, 2024. "The propagation of business expectations within the European Union," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1082-1103, September.
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    6. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2012. "On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 256-258.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Senay, Ozge & Sutherland, Alan, 2019. "Optimal monetary policy, exchange rate misalignments and incomplete financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 196-208.
    9. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
    10. Rodriguez, Harold & Colombo, Jefferson, 2025. "Is bitcoin an inflation hedge?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Ertuğrul Karaçuha & Vasil Tabatadze & Kamil Karaçuha & Nisa Özge Önal & Esra Ergün, 2020. "Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    13. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    15. Marta Lachowska, 2013. "Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data," Upjohn Working Papers 13-197, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    16. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    17. Jacek Suda, 2013. "Belief shocks and the macroeconomy," Working papers 434, Banque de France.
    18. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2020. "A tractable framework for analyzing a class of nonstationary Markov models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1289-1323, November.
    20. Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2014. "News and labour market dynamics in the data and in matching models," Bank of England working papers 488, Bank of England.
    21. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:nov22:n:2010-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.