IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sip/dpaper/07-015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Nir Jaimovich

    () (Department of Economics, Stanford University)

  • Sergio Rebelo

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimism and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, while overconfident agents overestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increase business-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement, and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is not a useful source of volatility in our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle," Discussion Papers 07-015, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:07-015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-siepr.stanford.edu/repec/sip/07-015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Johnsen, Thore, 1998. "Productivity growth, consumer confidence and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1113-1140, June.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
    3. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "The C-CAPM without ex post data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 721-729, December.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    9. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," Working Paper 2012/12, Norges Bank.
    2. Carlos Garcia & Andrés Sagner, 2012. "Exceso de Toma de Riesgo Crediticio en Chile," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv280, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    3. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner, 2013. "Firms' Optimism and Pessimism," CESifo Working Paper Series 4176, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. repec:eee:eecrev:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:293-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    7. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2015. "The loan contract with costly state verification and subjective beliefs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 89-105.
    8. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2015. "Over consumption. A horse race of Bayesian DSGE models," MPRA Paper 66445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    10. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Suda, J., 2013. "Belief shocks and the macroeconomy," Working papers 434, Banque de France.
    12. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:37:y:2019:i:1:p:113-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ioan Roxana, 2015. "The Influence Of Stock Market Investors’ Behavior On Business Cycles," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 136-144, December.
    15. Carlos Garcia & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de Toma de Riesgo, Costo del Crédito y Ciclo Económico en Chile," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv271, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    16. Lennart Erixon & Louise Johannesson, 2015. "Is the psychology of high profits detrimental to industrial renewal? Experimental evidence for the theory of transformation pressure," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 475-511, April.
    17. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2009. "Confidence of Agents and Market Frictions," MPRA Paper 21149, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; optimism; overconfidence; volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:07-015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Shor). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cestaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.