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Affine Model for Credit Risk Analysis


  • Christian Gourieroux


  • Alain Monfort


  • Vassilis Polimenis



Continuous-time affine models have been recently introduced in the theoretical financial literature on credit risk. They provide a coherent modeling, rather easy to implement, but have not yet encountered the expected success among practitioners and regulators. This is likely due to a lack of flexibility of these models, which often implied poor fit, especially compared to more ad hoc approaches proposed by the industry. The aim of this article is to explain that this lack of flexibility is mainly due to the continuous-time assumption. We develop a discrete-time affine analysis of credit risk, explain how different types of factors can be introduced to capture separately the term structure of default correlation, default heterogeneity, correlation between default, and loss-given-default; we also explain why the factor dynamics are less constrained in discrete time and are able to reproduce complicated cycle effects. These models are finally used to derive a credit-VaR and various decompositions of the spreads for corporate bonds or first-to-default basket. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
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  • Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort & Vassilis Polimenis, 2005. "Affine Model for Credit Risk Analysis," Working Papers 2005-44, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2005-44

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    Cited by:

    1. Masakazu Miura & Kenichiro Tamaki & Takayuki Shiohama, 2013. "Asymptotic Expansion for Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds with Non-Gaussian Dependent Innovations," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(4), pages 311-344, November.
    2. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
    3. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Sufana, Razvan, 2011. "Discrete time Wishart term structure models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 815-824, June.
    5. Gouriéroux, Christian, 2003. "Économétrie de la finance : l’exemple du risque de crédit," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 399-418, Décembre.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2013. "Linear-price term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 24-41.
    7. Alain Monfort & Olivier Féron, 2012. "Joint econometric modeling of spot electricity prices, forwards and options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 217-256, October.
    8. H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
    9. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
    10. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    11. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Multi-Lag Term Structure Models with Stochastic Risk Premia," Working Papers 2006-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. Gagliardini, P. & Gourieroux, C., 2005. "Migration correlation: Definition and efficient estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 865-894, April.
    13. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2012. "Asset pricing with Second-Order Esscher Transforms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1678-1687.
    14. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    15. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    16. Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Antoine Patin, 2018. "Loss functions for LGD model comparison," Working Papers halshs-01516147, HAL.
    17. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    18. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

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