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Ambiguity Aversion and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

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  • Laurent BARRAS

    (Imperial College, Tanaka Business School and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Patrick Gagliardini

    (University of Lugano and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Paolo Porchia

    (University of St. Gallen)

  • Fabio Trojani

    (University of St. Gallen)

Abstract

This paper studies the termstructure implications of a simple structuralmodel inwhich the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk premium of affine yield curve models. The ambiguity premium can be large even in the simplest log-utility setting and is non zero also for stochastic factors that have a zero risk premium. A calibrated low-dimensional two-factor model with ambiguity is able to reproduce the deviations from the expectations hypothesis documented in the literature, without modifying in a substantial way the nonlinear mean reversion dynamics of the short interest rate. Moreover, the model does not imply any apparent tradeoff between fitting the first and second moments of the yield curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent BARRAS & Patrick Gagliardini & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, "undated". "Ambiguity Aversion and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    2. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    4. Guo, Liang, 2013. "Determinants of credit spreads: The role of ambiguity and information uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 279-297.
    5. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2016. "Is stochastic volatility relevant for dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 601-626, May.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    7. Eduardo Corso, 2015. "Ambiguity and portfolio decisions," BCRA Working Paper Series 201567, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    8. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    9. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2012. "The price of risk and ambiguity in an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 507-531, November.
    10. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    11. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Capital Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity," Working Papers 12-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
    13. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    14. Horváth, Ferenc, 2017. "Essays on robust asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM e54d7b33-1f27-4b0e-9f84-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Hening Liu, 2011. "Dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity and regime switching mean returns," Post-Print hal-00781344, HAL.
    16. Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Ambiguity shifts and the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-507.
    17. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Dariusz Zawisza, 2016. "Smooth solutions to discounted reward control problems with unbounded discount rate and financial applications," Papers 1602.00899, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    19. Trojani, Fabio & Wiehenkamp, Christian & Wrampelmeyer, Jan, 2014. "Ambiguity and Reality," Working Papers on Finance 1418, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    20. Flor, Christian Riis & Hesel, Søren, 2015. "Uncertain dynamics, correlation effects, and robust investment decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 278-298.
    21. Liu, Hening, 2011. "Dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity and regime switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 623-640, April.
    22. repec:eee:jetheo:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:1-56 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    General Equilibrium; Term Structure of Interest Rates; Ambiguity Aversion; Expectations; Hypothesis; Campbell-Shiller Regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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