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IID: independently and indistinguishably distributed

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  • Epstein, Larry G.
  • Schneider, Martin

Abstract

The inability of the Bayesian model to accomodate Ellsberg-type behavior is well known. This paper focuses on another limitation of the Bayesian model, specific to a dynamic setting, namely the inability to permit a distinction between experiments that are identical and those that are only indistinguishable. It is shown that such a distinction is afforded by recursive multiple-priors utility. Two related technical contributions are the proff of a strong LLN for recursive multiple-priors utility and the extension to sets of priors of the notion of regularity of a probability measure.
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Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "IID: independently and indistinguishably distributed," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 32-50, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:113:y:2003:i:1:p:32-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2009. "Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 930-976, May.
    2. Frank Riedel & Linda Sass, 2014. "Ellsberg games," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 469-509, April.
    3. Werner, Jan, 2022. "Speculative trade under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Ellis, Andrew, 2018. "On dynamic consistency in ambiguous games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 241-249.
    5. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Learning Under Ambiguity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1275-1303.
    6. Paul Viefers, 2012. "Should I Stay or Should I Go?: A Laboratory Analysis of Investment Opportunities under Ambiguity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1228, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Tatjana Chudjakow & Frank Riedel, 2013. "The best choice problem under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 77-97, September.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Marinacci Massimo & Principi Giulio & Stanca Lorenzo, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Working papers 082, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    10. Chen, Zengjing & Epstein, Larry G., 2022. "A central limit theorem for sets of probability measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 424-451.
    11. Daniele Pennesi, 2013. "Asset Prices in an Ambiguous Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 315, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    12. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2012. "On the Smooth Ambiguity Model: A Reply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1303-1321, May.
    13. Massimo Marinacci & Giulio Principi & Lorenzo Stanca, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 695 JEL Classification: C, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    14. Zerihun, Mulatu F. & Breitenbach, Marthinus C., 2016. "Nonlinear approaches in testing PPP: Evidence from Southern African development community," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 162-167.
    15. Maximilian Blesch & Philipp Eisenhauer, 2021. "Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity," Papers 2104.12573, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    16. Feng, Chunrong & Wu, Panyu & Zhao, Huaizhong, 2020. "Ergodicity of invariant capacities," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 5037-5059.
    17. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    18. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
    19. Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2021. "Learning, confidence, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 354-376.
    20. M. Trojanowska & P. M. Kort, 2010. "The Worst Case for Real Options," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 709-734, September.
    21. Kishishita, Daiki, 2020. "(Not) delegating decisions to experts: The effect of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    22. Massimo Marinacci & Giulio Principi & Lorenzo Stanca, 2023. "Recursive Preferences and Ambiguity Attitudes," Papers 2304.06830, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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