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Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle

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  • Djeutem, Edouard

Abstract

This paper studies the Forward Premium Puzzle in a setting where investors doubt the specification of their models, and thus engage in robust portfolio strategies (Hansen and Sargent, 2008). It shows that an empirically plausible concern for model misspecification can explain the Forward Premium Puzzle. In particular, the paper shows that Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) volatility bounds can be attained with both reasonable degrees of risk aversion and reasonable detection error probabilities. Hence, observed excess returns in the foreign exchange market appear to be primarily driven by a model uncertainty premium.

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  • Djeutem, Edouard, 2014. "Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:16-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013. "Robustness and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
    2. sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
    3. Aziz Chouikh & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2014. "Modeling Risk Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange Rates as Unobserved Components: The Model Identification Problem," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 119-135, July.
    4. Djeutem Edouard & Nguimkeu Pierre, 2020. "Robust learning in the foreign exchange market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2023. "Model uncertainty, economic development, and welfare costs of business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
    10. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2018. "On the computation of detection error probabilities under normality assumptions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 106-109.
    11. sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
    12. Xu, Yuan, 2015. "Robustness to model uncertainty and the nominal term premium puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 124-137.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model uncertainty; Forward premium puzzle; Detection error probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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