IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India

  • Mundle, Sudipto
  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.
  • Das, Surajit

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8% or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014–15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6% of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 2657-2668

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2657-2668
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Monetary Policy Design in the Basic New Keynesian Model
    [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  2. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  3. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
  4. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework
    [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Ke
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  5. NR, Bhanumurthy & Kumawat, Lokendra, 2009. "External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model," MPRA Paper 19776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The Rational Expectations Revolution: A Review Article of: Preston J. Miller, ed.:The Rational Expectations Revolution, Readings from the Front Line," NBER Working Papers 5043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2005. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  9. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Thomas I. Palley, 2002. "Endogenous Money: What it is and Why it Matters," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 152-180, 05.
  11. Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 10/21, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  13. ., 2008. "Population Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Frontiers in Pension Finance, chapter 11 Edward Elgar.
  14. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Monetary Policy and the Open Economy
    [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2657-2668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.