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Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India

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  • Mundle, Sudipto

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Das, Surajit

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8 percent or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014-15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6 percent of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.

Suggested Citation

  • Mundle, Sudipto & Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Das, Surajit, 2010. "Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India," Working Papers 10/73, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:10/73
    Note: Working Paper 73, 2010
    as

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chadi Abdallah & David Coady & Sanjeev Gupta & Emine Hanedar, 2015. "The Quest for the Holy Grail; Efficient and Equitable Fiscal Consolidation in India," IMF Working Papers 15/152, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ajay Chhibber & Akshata Kalloor, "undated". "Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers," Working Papers 2017-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Sharma, Chandan, 2013. "Does Weak Rupee Matter for India's Manufacturing Exports?," Working Papers 13/115, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. repec:sos:sosjrn:170406 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Adhikari, Parma Devi, 2015. "Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach," Working Papers 15/148, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Tapsoba, Sampawende J.-A., 2014. "Options and strategies for fiscal consolidation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-237.
    7. Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, Surajit & Bose, Sukanya, 2012. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India," Working Papers 12/99, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
    9. Kelkar, Vijay & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Indian social democracy: The resource perspective," Working Papers 11/82, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Chhibber, Ajay & Kalloor, Akshata, 2016. "Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers," Working Papers 16/181, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    11. Mundle, Sudipto & M.Govinda Rao & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "Stimulus, Recovery and Exit Policy G20 Experience and Indian Strategy," Working Papers 11/85, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic modelling; Policy simulation; Fiscal policy; India;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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