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Fiscal Multipliers for India

  • Bose, Sukanya

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    ()

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

This paper attempts to present a framework for the estimation of fiscal multipliers for the Indian economy in the structural macroeconomic modelling tradition. Empirical estimates of short-run multipliers are obtained by giving shocks to a range of fiscal instruments - expenditures and taxes. As per our estimates, the values of capital expenditure multiplier, transfer payments multiplier and other revenue expenditure multiplier are 2.45, 0.98, and 0.99, respectively, while the tax multipliers are in the range of -1. Expenditure multipliers were also obtained in the presence of fiscal consolidation targets. These estimates again point to the strong multiplier effect of capital expenditure on output, and underscore the need to prioritize capital expenditure.

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File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2013/09/WP_2013_125.pdf
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Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 13/125.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:13/125
Note: Working Paper 125, 2013
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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  1. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christiane Nickel & Andreas Tudyka, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1313-1344, October.
  4. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1309, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 219-265, 04.
  6. Magda ElSayed Kandil, 2013. "Variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing: evidence across industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4894-4927, December.
  7. Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, Surajit & Bose, Sukanya, 2012. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India," Working Papers 12/99, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
  9. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78 - 121.
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mundle, Sudipto & Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Das, Surajit, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2657-2668.
  12. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
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