Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth : A Policy Simulation Model for India
In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8% or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014-15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6% of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- NR, Bhanumurthy & Kumawat, Lokendra, 2009. "External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model," MPRA Paper 19776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The Rational Expectations Revolution: A Review Article of: Preston J. Miller, ed.:The Rational Expectations Revolution, Readings from the Front Line," NBER Working Papers 5043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 10/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Thomas I. Palley, 2002. "Endogenous Money: What it is and Why it Matters," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 152-180, 05.
- Jordi Galí, 2008.
"Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework
[Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Ke," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.