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Does the Central Bank of Peru Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Bayesian Estimation of a New Keynesian DSGE Model with FX Interventions

Author

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  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Paul Castillo

    (Banco Central de Reserva, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

  • Harumi Hasegawa

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Abstract

This paper assess the role played by the exchange rate and FX intervention in setting monetary policy interest rates in Peru. We estimate a Taylor rule that includes inflation, output gap and the exchange rate using a New Keynesian DSGE model that follows closely Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2017). The model is extended to include an explicit sterilized FX intervention rule as in Faltermeier et al. (2017). The main empirical results show, for the pre Inflation Targeting (IT) and IT periods, that the model that clearly outperforms in terms of marginal log density, features a Taylor rule that does not respond to changes in the nominal exchange rate and an active use of FX intervention by the Central Bank. We also find that the coefficient associated with the response of the Taylor rule to inflation is close to 2 and the one associated with the output gap is greater than 1; and that FX intervention has become more responsive to exchange rate fluctuations during the IT period. Finally, the estimated IRFs shows that FX intervention has contributed to reduce the volatility of GDP in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks in Peru. JEL Classification-JE: C22, C52, F41.

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  • Gabriel Rodríguez & Paul Castillo & Harumi Hasegawa, 2021. "Does the Central Bank of Peru Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Bayesian Estimation of a New Keynesian DSGE Model with FX Interventions," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2021-504, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00504
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0504
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    1. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Castillo B., Paul & Hasegawa, Harumi, 2023. "Does the Central Bank of Peru respond to exchange rate movements? A Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian DSGE model with FX interventions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Pérez Rojo, Flavio & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2024. "Impact of monetary policy shocks in the Peruvian economy over time," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 270-288.
    5. Ma, Wei & Zhang, Renzhong & Han, Liyan & Li, Wei, 2025. "Divergent relationships between exchange rate pass-through and policy rates across economies: An extension of the Taylor rule," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Yugang He & Zhuoqi Teng, 2024. "Navigating Uncharted Waters: The Transformation of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy in Response to Global Economic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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