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Empirical Regularities of Chilean Business Cycles

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  • Agnès Belaisch
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper documents the empirical regularities characterizing business cycles in Chile in a wide range of economic activities. While the country presents many of the typical features of business fluctuations in OECD countries, Chilean cycles present some striking peculiarities. Trade represents an important part of economic activity as exports move contemporaneously with output and the terms of trade lead the cycle long in advance. Besides, public policies play a significant role in short-run economic fluctuations: government expenditures and monetary policy variables lead the cycle 2 to 3 quarters in advance. Kydland and Prescott's (1990) ``monetary myth'' is alive in Chile.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Belaisch & Claudio Soto, 1998. "Empirical Regularities of Chilean Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 41, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Erik Haindl R. & Rodrigo Fuentes, 1986. "Estimación del stock de capital en Chile: 1960-1984," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 13(1 Year 19), pages 39-72, April.
    4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    5. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    7. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    8. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    9. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    10. Hercowitz, Z., 1992. "Macroeconomic Implication of Investment-Specific Technological Change," Papers 13-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
    11. Chadha, Bankim & Prasad, Eswar, 1994. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 239-257, October.
    12. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 1998. "Chile's Takeoff: Facts, Challenges, Lessons," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 34, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Baxter, Marianne, 1991. "Business cycles, stylized facts, and the exchange rate regime: evidence from the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pacheco Jiménez, J.F., 2001. "Business cycles in small open economies: the case of Costa Rica," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en Colombia y Chile," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, December.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Francisco Rosende & Matías Tapia, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Chile: Institutions, Objectives,and Instruments," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.), Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 12, pages 263-307 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2002. "Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 115-126.
    6. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.

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