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El Dinero como Indicador Líder

  • Se Kyu Choi-Ha
  • Luis Felipe Lagos

    (Instituto de Economía)

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    For policy makers and business cycles analysts is important to count on variables that anticipate points of inflection in economic activity. This paper studies aggregate real money balances as leader indicator of the economic activity based on a Probit mo

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    Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 120 ()
    Pages: 259-283

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    Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:40:y:2003:i:120:p:259-283
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    1. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 3856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 126, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Agnès Belaisch & Claudio Soto, 1998. "Empirical Regularities of Chilean Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 41, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    9. Eduardo Walker, 1998. "Mercado Accionario y Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 49-72.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    11. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
    13. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    14. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A, 1992. "Testing for Granger's Full Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 146-53, February.
    15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    16. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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