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El Dinero como Indicador Líder

Author

Listed:
  • Se Kyu Choi-Ha
  • Luis Felipe Lagos

    (Instituto de Economía)

Abstract

For policy makers and business cycles analysts is important to count on variables that anticipate points of inflection in economic activity. This paper studies aggregate real money balances as leader indicator of the economic activity based on a Probit mo

Suggested Citation

  • Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:40:y:2003:i:120:p:259-283
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/120lagoa.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
    4. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2005. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in a Emerging Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 7, pages 221-260 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    8. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    9. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A, 1992. "Testing for Granger's Full Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 146-153, February.
    10. Agnès Belaisch & Claudio Soto, 1998. "Empirical Regularities of Chilean Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 41, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Eduardo Walker, 1998. "Mercado Accionario y Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 49-72.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    15. Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; leading indicator; probit model; granger-type casuality tests; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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