IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2023-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Transfers and Common Debt in a Monetary Union: A Multi-Country Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Caiani
  • Ermanno Catullo

Abstract

Using a refined version of the multi-country AB-SFC model of a Monetary Union already presented in Caiani et al. (2018a, 2019) the paper aims at providing a tentative assessment of the economic effects of transforming the European Monetary Union into an Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfer Union (IFTU) with its own fiscal capacity. Countries contribute proportionally to their GDP whereas funds are redistributed according to a mechanism that gives more funds to countries performing worse than the average of the Union in cyclical terms. Our simulations show that an IFTU inspired by such a redistribution principle acts as a stabilizer of international trade, allowing to stabilize and improve the Union GDP performance without affecting the stability of public finances. When the Union is allowed to borrow on capital markets, i.e. in a Fully-Fledged Fiscal Transfer Union (FFFTU), these effects are enhanced and a part of the public debt burden shifts from the national to the Union level, leaving the total burden almost stable. An interesting result to assess the political acceptability of the proposal is that 'core' countries eventually benefit the most from the introduction of this mechanism, despite being more frequently net contributors. Finally, we show that an FFFTU with common debt might help to soften the impact of an exogenous demand shock while, because of the fact that it mainly operates as a stabilizer of aggregate demand, it does not seem to provide beneficial effects when facing a supply shock to production.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo, 2023. "Fiscal Transfers and Common Debt in a Monetary Union: A Multi-Country Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Model," LEM Papers Series 2023/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2023-19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis, 2016. "Monetary Union, Even Higher Integration, or Back to National Currencies?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(2), pages 232-255.
    2. André Lorentz & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2016. "The effect of demand-driven structural transformations on growth and technological change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 219-246, March.
    3. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) Model," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marc Lavoie & Gennaro Zezza (ed.), The Stock-Flow Consistent Approach, chapter 9, pages 194-215, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Bovenberg, A Lans, 2001. "The Optimality of a Monetary Union without a Fiscal Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 179-204, May.
    5. Sarah Wolf & Steffen Fürst & Antoine Mandel & Wiebke Lass & Daniel Lincke & Federico Pablo-Marti & Carlo Jaeger, 2013. "A multi-agent model of several economic regions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825217, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qv4spsglp8tmorvev1h0duo4p is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Holcombe, Mike & Coakley, Simon & Kiran, Mariam & Chin, Shawn & Greenough, Chris & Worth, David & Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, M. & Teglio, Andrea & Deissenberg, Christophe & Hoog, Sander van der & Da, 2013. "Large-Scale Modeling of Economic Systems," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 62347, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. H. Dawid & P. Harting & M. Neugart, 2018. "Fiscal transfers and regional economic growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 651-671, August.
    9. Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2020. "Are Higher Wages Good For Business? An Assessment Under Alternative Innovation And Investment Scenarios," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 191-230, January.
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    11. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    12. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00825217 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marko Petrovic & Bulent Ozel & Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2017. "Eurace Open: An agent-based multi-country model," Working Papers 2017/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    14. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    15. Christophe Deissenberg & Sander van Der Hoog & Herbert Dawid, 2008. "EURACE: A Massively Parallel Agent-Based Model of the European Economy," Working Papers halshs-00339756, HAL.
    16. Farmer, J. Doyne & Axtell, Robert L., 2022. "Agent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and Future," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    18. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    19. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2018. "Cohesion policy and inequality dynamics: Insights from a heterogeneous agents macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 220-255.
    20. T Assenza & P Colzani & D Delli Gatti & J Grazzini, 2018. "Does fiscal policy matter? Tax, transfer, and spend in a macro ABM with capital and credit," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1069-1090.
    21. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    22. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    23. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    24. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    25. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    26. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    27. Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "The effects of fiscal targets in a monetary union: a multi-country agent-based stock flow consistent model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1123-1154.
    28. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    29. Gennaro Zezza, 2012. "The impact of fiscal austerity in the Eurozone," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(0), pages 37-54.
    30. Helge Berger & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 657-683, September.
    31. Herbert Dawid & Simon Gemkow & Philipp Harting & Michael Neugart, 2013. "Labor Market Integration Policies and The Convergence of Regions: The Role of Skills and Technology Diffusion," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Guido Buenstorf & Uwe Cantner & Horst Hanusch & Michael Hutter & Hans-Walter Lorenz & Fritz Rahmeyer (ed.), The Two Sides of Innovation, edition 127, pages 167-186, Springer.
    32. Tommaso Ciarli & André Lorentz & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2010. "The Effect Of Consumption And Production Structure On Growth And Distribution. A Micro To Macro Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 180-218, February.
    33. Alan J. Auerbach & William G. Gale & Benjamin H. Harris, 2010. "Activist Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 141-164, Fall.
    34. Nathaniel G Arnold & Bergljot B Barkbu & H. Elif Ture & Hou Wang & Jiaxiong Yao, 2018. "A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/03, International Monetary Fund.
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold & Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & H. Elif Ture & Hou Wang & Jiaxiong Yao, 2018. "A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2018/003, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2014. "Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-80.
    38. Steven C. Salop, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition with Outside Goods," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 141-156, Spring.
    39. Jaejoon Woo, 2009. "Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Procyclical Fiscal Policy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 850-870, November.
    40. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    41. Alberto Russo & Luca Riccetti & Mauro Gallegati, 2016. "Increasing inequality, consumer credit and financial fragility in an agent based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 25-47, March.
    42. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Vitor Gaspar & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2017. "Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2017/018, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Guilherme Bandeira, 2018. "Fiscal transfers in a monetary union with sovereign risk," Working Papers 1807, Banco de España.
    44. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    45. Caiani, Alessandro & Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "The effects of alternative wage regimes in a monetary union: A multi-country agent based-stock flow consistent model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 389-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Borsato & Andre Lorentz, 2023. "Open Science vs. Mission-oriented Policies and the Long-run Dynamics of Integrated Economies: An Agent-based Model with a Kaldorian Flavour," Working Papers of BETA 2023-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caiani, Alessandro & Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "The effects of alternative wage regimes in a monetary union: A multi-country agent based-stock flow consistent model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 389-416.
    2. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    3. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Forecasting in a complex environment: Machine learning sales expectations in a stock flow consistent agent-based simulation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    5. Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "The effects of fiscal targets in a monetary union: a multi-country agent-based stock flow consistent model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1123-1154.
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    7. Lena Gerdes & Bernhard Rengs & Manuel Scholz-Wäckerle, 2022. "Labor and environment in global value chains: an evolutionary policy study with a three-sector and two-region agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 123-173, January.
    8. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2016. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and monetary policies in the Eurace model," Working Papers 2016/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    14. Domenico Delli Gatti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Filippo Gusella & Lilit Popoyan & Giorgio Ricchiuti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "The complex interplay between exchange rate and real markets: an agent-based model exploration," LEM Papers Series 2024/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does Inequality Hamper Innovation and Growth?," MPRA Paper 71864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    17. Alessandro Taberna & Tatiana Filatova & Andrea Roventini & Francesco Lamperti, 2021. "Coping with increasing tides: technological change, agglomeration dynamics and climate hazards in an agent-based evolutionary model," LEM Papers Series 2021/44, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    19. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    20. Terranova, Roberta & Turco, Enrico M., 2022. "Concentration, stagnation and inequality: An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 569-595.
    21. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    22. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Transfer Union; Union Bonds; European Integration; Agent Based Macroeconomics; Stock Flow Consistent Models.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.