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Stock Market Cycles and Supply Side Dynamics: Two Worlds, One Vision?

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  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Eddie Gerba

Abstract

The paper compares two state-of-art but very dinstinct methods used in macroeconomics: rational-expectations DSGE and bounded rationality behavioural models. Both models are extended to include a financial friction on the supply side.The result in both models is that production, supply of credit and the front payment to capital producers depend heavily on the stock market cycles. During phases of optimism, credit is abundant, access to production capital is easy, the cash-in-advance constraint is lax, the risks are undervalued, and production is booming. But upon reversal in market sentiment, the contraction in all these parameters is deeper and asymmetric. This is even more evident in the behavioural model, where cognitive limitations of economic agents result in exacerbation of the contraction. While both models capture the empirical regularities very well, the validation exercise is even more favourable to the behavioural model.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2015. "Stock Market Cycles and Supply Side Dynamics: Two Worlds, One Vision?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5573, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2017. "Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 78-100, April.
    2. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    3. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:46-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. de Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2017. "Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes = Transmisión monetaria bajo regímenes alternativos de finanzas corporativas," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67658, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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