IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dse/indecr/v36y2001i1p189-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting with Real Business Cycle Models

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Zimmermann

    (Universite du Quebec a Montreal)

Abstract

Forecasting at business cycle frequencies is traditionally done with statistically estimated econometric models. This paper takes a different approach, using a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model in line with the real business cycle literature. First attempts by others have not proved very successful, most probably because the structure of the models was too simple. We take a simple real business cycle model, the Kydland-Prescott (1982) model economy sufficiently simplified to accommodate for the availability of state variables in the data, augmented by government expense shocks. The forecasts are then evaluated with the traditional tools of the econometric forecaster. It is found that the model has potential for making good forecasts when compared to estimated models that are equally parsimonious.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Zimmermann, 2001. "Forecasting with Real Business Cycle Models," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 189-203, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:189-203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    2. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    3. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 37, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Aug 1997.
    7. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "Technology Innovations and the Volatility of Output: An International Perspective," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 34, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    10. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Technology shocks and the business cycle: On empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 703-719, May.
    11. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Männistö, Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model : combining long-run views of financial markes with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:189-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pami Dua). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deudein.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.