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A Small-Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy

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  • Guangling (dave Liu
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

This paper uses a version of Hansen's (1985) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to forecast the South African economy. The calibrated model, based on annual data over the period of 1970-2000, is used to generate one- to eight-quarters-ahead out-of-sample forecast errors for the period of 2001:1 to 2005:4. The forecast errors are then compared with the unrestricted versions of the Classical and Bayesian VARs. A Bayesian VAR with relatively loose priors outperforms both the classical VAR and the DSGE model. Copyright (c) 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation (c) Economic Society of South Africa 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small-Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:75:y:2007:i:2:p:179-193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Servaas BERG & Onelle BURGER, 2003. "Education And Socio-Economic Differentials: A Study Of School Performance In The Western Cape," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(3), pages 496-522, September.
    2. Hanushek, Eric A. & Luque, Javier A., 2003. "Efficiency and equity in schools around the world," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 481-502, October.
    3. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 1999. "School Inputs and Educational Outcomes in South Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 1047-1084.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jooste, Charl & Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2013. "Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 215-224.
    2. Hilary Patroba & Leroi Raputsoane, 2016. "South Africa's real business cycles: The cycle is the trend," Working Papers 12/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ngalawa, Harold & Viegi, Nicola, 2013. "Interaction of formal and informal financial markets in quasi-emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 614-624.
    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    5. Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
    6. Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D. & Inma MARTÍNEZ-ZARZOSO & Dierk HERZER & Stephan KLASEN & Axel DREHER, "undated". "Foreign Aid and Its Effect on Per-Capita Income (Growth) in Recipient Countries: Pitfalls and Findings from a Time Series Perspective," EcoMod2010 259600121, EcoMod.
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    10. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Seeiso, Nkhahle E., 2012. "Basel II procyclicality: The case of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 848-857.
    12. Guangling ‘Dave’ Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach," Working Papers 51, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. Guangling 'Dave' Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2009. "A New-Keynesian DSGE model for forecasting the South African economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 387-404.
    14. Guangling (Dave) Liu, 2013. "Will the Sarb always Succeed in Fighting Inflation with Contractionary Policy?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 330-345, September.
    15. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Nkhahle Seeiso, 2011. "Business Cycle and Bank Capital Regulation: Basel II Procyclicality," Working Papers 18/2011, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    16. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/04- A medium-sized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    17. Annari De Waal & Reneé Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2649-2670, May.
    18. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Dave Liu, 2007. "Growth Theory and Application: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 200714, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    22. Caraiani, Petre, 2008. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 182-192, March.
    23. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.
    24. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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