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The common sources of business cycles in Trans‐Pacific countries and the US? A comparison with NAFTA

Author

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  • Uluc Aysun
  • Takeshi Yagihashi

Abstract

This paper uses both a non‐structural and a structural approach to investigate the drivers of the business cycles in the US and 15 Trans‐Pacific (TP) countries. Our non‐structural analysis, based on a principal component methodology, reveals the shares of variation in macroeconomic variables that are due to factors common to both the US and the TP region, and factors that are region‐specific. We obtain similar measures by using a structural model (an estimated two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model) that allows for common and correlated shocks across the two regions. The clear and common finding from our analyses is that common shocks explain a substantial amount of macroeconomic variation. Comparison with the NAFTA region, along this dimension, reveals that the US economy is more similar to the TP region (a wider region that also includes Mexico and Canada) than its two neighbours.

Suggested Citation

  • Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2019. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans‐Pacific countries and the US? A comparison with NAFTA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1077-1109, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:4:p:1077-1109
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12742
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    Cited by:

    1. Puneet Vatsa, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66.
    2. Ľubica Štiblárová, 2020. "Traditional and Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedures: Evidence for the Euro Area and the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 263-274.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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