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The common sources of business cycles in Trans-Pacific countries and the U.S.? A comparison with NAFTA

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  • Uluc Aysun

    (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL)

  • Takeshi Yagihashi

    (Old Dominion University)

Abstract

This paper uses both a nonstructural and a structural analysis to investigate the drivers of the business cycles in the US and 15 Trans-Pacific (TP) countries. Our nonstructural approach, based on a principal component methodology, helps us measure the share of the variation in macroeconomic variables that is explained by factors that are common to both the US and the TP region. We carry out a similar exercise after estimating a large scale, two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that allows for common and correlated shocks across the two regions. The clear and common finding from our analyses is that common shocks explain a substantial amount of macroeconomic variation. Comparison with the NAFTA region, along this dimension, reveals that the US economy is more similar to the TP region than it is with Mexico and Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2017. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans-Pacific countries and the U.S.? A comparison with NAFTA," Working Papers 2017-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2017-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vatsa, Puneet, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66, May.
    2. Ľubica Štiblárová, 2020. "Traditional and Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedures: Evidence for the Euro Area and the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 263-274.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Principal component analysis; DSGE; Bayesian estimation; Trans-Pacific; NAFTA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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