IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ambsrv/0026.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?

Author

Listed:
  • Vatsa, Puneet

    (Lincoln University)

Abstract

Trade agreements do not necessitate business cycle comovement. Focusing on NAFTA, we investigate whether business cycles in Canada, Mexico, and the US have become more synchronous after the landmark trade agreement came into effect in 1994. To this end, using the newly-developed Hamilton filter, we decompose the real GDPs of the three countries to derive their business cycle components; then, we conduct time-difference analyses, which illuminate correlations at different time intervals, to study business cycle synchronization. We find that business cycles in Mexico and the US have become positively correlated after NAFTA—they were weakly and negatively correlated during the pre-NAFTA period. Contrastingly, correlations amongst the US and Canadian business cycles have weakened during the post-NAFTA period; nevertheless, these two countries' business cycles continue to be tightly and positively correlated. The oft-used Hodrick-Prescott filter is utilized to confirm the robustness of the results—the two filters lead to similar conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vatsa, Puneet, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ambsrv:0026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://digitalcommons.newhaven.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1325&context=americanbusinessreview
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy M. Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2005. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 35-81, Springer.
    4. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Anderson, H.M. & Kwark, N.-S. & Vahid, F., 1999. "Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
    8. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & Todd Kemp, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Monthly NYMEX Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 12, pages 149-155, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Uluc Aysun & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2019. "The common sources of business cycles in Trans‐Pacific countries and the US? A comparison with NAFTA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1077-1109, April.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    12. He, Yongxiu & Wang, Bing & Wang, Jianhui & Xiong, Wei & Xia, Tian, 2013. "Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 898-909.
    13. De Pace, Pierangelo, 2013. "Currency Union, Free-Trade Areas, And Business Cycle Synchronization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 646-680, April.
    14. Jahan, Sayeeda & Serletis, Apostolos, 2019. "Business cycles and hydrocarbon gas liquids prices," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Ramon A. CASTILLO PONCE & Ramon de Jesus RAMIREZ ACOSTA, 2008. "Economic Integration In North America," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 111-122.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    17. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    19. Robert A. Blecker, 2003. "The North American Economies After NAFTA : A Critical Appraisal," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 5-27.
    20. Maria Bejan, 2011. "Trade Agreements and International Comovements: the Case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 667-685, October.
    21. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    22. Fausto Hernandez-Trillo, 2018. "Mexico, NAFTA, and beyond," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 5-20, January.
    23. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    24. Balashova, Svetlana & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Oil prices shocks and the Russian economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    25. Dimitrios Bakas & Karen Jackson & Georgios Magkonis, 2020. "Trade (Dis)integration: The Sudden Death of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 931-943, September.
    26. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2008/100, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Cesar Sobrino & Ellis Heath, 2013. "Currency Area and Non-synchronized Business Cycles between the US and Puerto Rico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1948-1958.
    3. Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    4. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    5. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," Borradores de Economia 1149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Puneet Vatsa & Dragan Miljkovic, 2022. "Energy and crop price cycles before and after the global financial crisis: A new approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-233, February.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.
    8. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. Puneet Vatsa, 2022. "Do crop prices share common trends and common cycles?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 363-382, April.
    10. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Maria Bejan, 2011. "Trade Agreements and International Comovements: the Case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 667-685, October.
    13. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2012. "Crude oil price and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries: evidence of decoupling feature," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
    14. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    16. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    17. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    18. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    19. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    20. Stephen Hall & David Shepherd, 2003. "Testing for Common Cycles in Money, Nominal Income and Prices," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(s1), pages 68-84, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAFTA; Business Cycles; Hamilton Filter; Hodrick-Prescott Filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ambsrv:0026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amber Montano (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbnhaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.