IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijmefi/v5y2012i1p1-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude oil price and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries: evidence of decoupling feature

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim A. Onour

Abstract

This paper investigates common cyclical feature between crude oil market and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. The results of the paper show the evidence of common cyclical association between oil price and each of the stock prices at low levels of oil prices, below $40 per oil barrel, but no evidence of such cyclical association between the two asset prices at the high oil price levels above $72 per barrel. This implies that the capital markets in these countries and oil market respond in different pattern to cycle generating shocks, as high oil prices may raise global investment risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Onour, 2012. "Crude oil price and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries: evidence of decoupling feature," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijmefi:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:1-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44464
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    2. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2010. "Decomposing fundamental and non-fundamental volatility in GCC stock markets," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2013. "Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 116-138.
    4. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. repec:clg:wpaper:1999-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    7. Apostolos Serletis & Todd Kemp, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Monthly NYMEX Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 12, pages 149-155, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Apostolos Serletis & John Herbert, 2007. "The Message in North American Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 13, pages 156-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    10. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, April.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    12. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2008. "What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 17-25.
    13. Carvalho, Vasco & Harvey, Andrew & Trimbur, Thomas, 2007. "A Note on Common Cycles, Common Trends, and Convergence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 12-20, January.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dong, Yang & Wen, Shu-hui & Hu, Xiao-bing & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2020. "Stochastic resonance of drawdown risk in energy market prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    2. Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping & Gong, Qiang & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 134-149.
    3. Venkata Sai Srinivasa Rao Muramalla & Hassan Ali Alqahtani, 2020. "Long Run Association of Oil Prices and Stock Prices: A Case of Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 593-600.
    4. Li, Jiang-Cheng & Leng, Na & Zhong, Guang-Yan & Wei, Yu & Peng, Jia-Sheng, 2020. "Safe marginal time of crude oil price via escape problem of econophysics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibrahim Onour, "undated". "Is the high crude oil prices cause the soaring global food prices?," API-Working Paper Series 1001, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    2. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2011. "Energy consumption at business cycle horizons: The case of the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 161-167, March.
    7. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén & Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo, 2005. "O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 034, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    9. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    10. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutiérrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2007. "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Working Papers Series 139, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes, 2006. "Evidence About Mercosur’S Business Cycle," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 179, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Sharma, Subhash C. & Wongbangpo, Praphan, 2002. "Long-term trends and cycles in ASEAN stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 299-315.
    13. Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique Carrasco & Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis, 2009. "Evidence on Common Features and Business Cycle Synchronization in Mercosur," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(1), May.
    14. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    15. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    16. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
    17. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2009. "Natural gas markets: how sensitive are they to crude oil price changes?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 33(2), pages 111-124, June.
    18. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1815-1836, April.
    20. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    common trends; shared cycles; nonlinear cointegration; crude oil prices; stock markets; oil exporting countries; oil exports; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; UAE; Kuwait; investment risks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijmefi:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:1-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=218 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.