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Crude Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Major Oil Exporting Countries: Evidence on Decoupling Feature

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  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper investigates common cyclical features between crude oil market and stock markets in major oil exporting countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait. The results of the paper indicate, at low oil prices (below $40 per oil barrel) Saudi and Abu-Dhabi markets share common cyclical feature with oil market, but they digress from the oil market as oil prices rose above $40 per barrel. The decoupling feature indicate the capital markets and oil market respond in different pattern to cycle generating shocks, suggesting as higher oil prices may raise global investment risk, stock markets in these countries deflect from their key fundamental driver.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23334/1/MPRA_paper_23334.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23334.

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Date of creation: 10 May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23334
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Keywords: Common trends; Shared cycles; nonlinear cointegration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
  • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
  • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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  1. Serletis, Apostolos & Kemp, Todd, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of monthly NYMEX energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 265-271, June.
  2. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2008. "What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 17-25.
  3. Roengchai Tansuchat & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-706, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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  6. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, 04.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  9. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Serletis, Apostolos & Rangel-Ruiz, Ricardo, 2004. "Testing for common features in North American energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-414, May.
  12. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  13. Serletis, Apostolos & Herbert, John, 1999. "The message in North American energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 471-483, October.
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