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Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Yun K. Kim
  • Mark Setterfield
  • Yuan Mei

Abstract

The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a significant contraction in US consumption spending, as households began deleveraging following a period marked by historically high levels of household borrowing. These events call into question the canonical life-cycle theory of consumption, with its benign view of debt as a neutral instrument of optimal intertemporal expenditure smoothing. This paper draws attention to an alternative, post-Keynesian account of consumption spending in which current income, household borrowing and household indebtedness all affect current consumption. Central to the analysis is an empirical investigation of US consumption spending since the 1950s. The results of this inquiry cast doubt on the life-cycle hypothesis, but are congruent with the alternative, post-Keynesian account of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun K. Kim & Mark Setterfield & Yuan Mei, 2015. "Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(1), pages 93-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:93-112.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/beu029
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Barradas & Ines Tomas, 2023. "Household indebtedness in the European Union countries: Going beyond the mainstream interpretation," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(304), pages 21-49.
    2. Daniel Detzer, 2017. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality: Export-led Mercantilist and Debt-led Private Demand Boom Economies in a Stock-flow consistent Model," Working Papers 2016-03, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    3. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    4. Glenn Lauren Moore & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2018. "The drivers of household indebtedness reconsidered: An empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 547-577, October.
    5. Ana Romão & Ricardo Barradas, 2024. "Macroeconomic determinants of households' indebtedness in Portugal: What really matters in the era of financialisation?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 383-401, January.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    7. Franz J. Prante, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Personal and Functional Income Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the US and Germany," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 65(3), pages 289-318.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    10. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    11. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    12. Hein, Eckhard, 2022. "Varieties of demand and growth regimes: Post-Keynesian foundations," IPE Working Papers 196/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Andoni Maiza Larrarte, 2025. "Persistence in China’s household consumption level: implications for the new growth model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(1), pages 283-298, March.
    14. Lilian N. Rolim & Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Income distribution, productivity growth, and workers’ bargaining power in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 473-516, April.
    15. Detzer, Daniel, 2016. "Financialisation, debt and inequality: Scenarios based on a stock flow consistent model," IPE Working Papers 64/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    16. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    17. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    18. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2019. "Financialization and demand regimes in advanced economies," Working Papers PKWP1911, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Hein, Eckhard, 2025. "Kaleckian economics after Kalecki: A survey," IPE Working Papers 257/2025, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    20. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Herrero, Pablo & Zekaite, Zivile, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    21. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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