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Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

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  • Thomas H.W. Ziesemer

Abstract

We sub-divide scale-invariant fully or semi-endogenous growth models into six sub-categories for formulas relating steady-state growth rates of income per capita and the growth rate of the population depending on the properties of slopes and intercepts. We capture their steady-state relation by a long-term relation in panel vector-error-correction models for 16 countries and estimate the 16 models simultaneously allowing successively for more heterogeneity. Under slope homogeneity, the slope and intercepts of the growth equations are positive in this setting. However, allowing for heterogeneity there are two main groups of countries: those with non-positive slopes and positive intercepts are a large majority supporting fully endogenous growth; those with positive slopes and zero intercepts are a smaller group supporting semi-endogenous growth. Results therefore favour fully over semi-endogenous growth with and without slope homogeneity and allow for growth rate policies. The more frequent case is that long-run growth can remain positive if population stops growing. Analysis of cross-unit cointegration suggests that long-run results are internationally connected.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2020. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(13), pages 1502-1516, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:13:p:1502-1516
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1676391
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki & Noriki Fukatani & Daisuke Imai & Yusuke Kamanaka, 2025. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy With Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population Under the Balance‐of‐Payments Constraint," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 328-345, July.
    3. Benjamin Musiita & Frederick Nsambu Kijjambu & Ruth Nyiramahoro, 2025. "Human Capital, Fixed Capital Formation and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Endogenous Growth Drivers in Uganda," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 17(1), pages 82-95.
    4. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2022. "Foreign R&D spillovers to the USA and strategic reactions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(37), pages 4274-4291, August.
    5. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    6. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2021. "Semi-endogenous growth models with domestic and foreign private and public R&D linked to VECMs," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 621-642, August.
    7. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2020. "Semi-endogenous growth models with domestic and foreign private and public R&D linked to VECMs with evidence for five countries," MERIT Working Papers 2020-013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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