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Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rizwana Siddiqui

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • A. R. Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

This study attempts to assess the impact of two shocks-trade liberlisation and a decline in remittances from abroad-on poverty in Pakistan using a CGE framework. It is found that tariff reducation in the absesnce of a decline in remittances reduces poverty, as measured by the head count, poverty gap, and severity ratios (FGT indicators) in both the rural and urban areas of Pakistan. In terms of welfare, all households appear to gain. The results show that the gain in welfare is larger for urban households than for rural households. We conclude from this that trade liberalisation reduces the gap between urban and ruralhouseholds. In a second set of experiments, it was found that trade liberlisation in the presence of a decline in remittances reduced welfare in urban households but rural households still show an increase over the base year. According to all FGT indicators, poverty increases in urban households but not in rural households. the combined shock is more harmful to households in the urban areas than for households in the rural areas. However, this welfare gain and reduction in poverty level in rural households in less than the welfare gain and poverty reduction in the presence of trade liberlisation only. Aggregate statistics show that the negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberlisation in urban areas. On the other hand, in the case of rural areas, the posve impact of trade liberlisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances. It shows that teh decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:1, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2006:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Remittances; Poverty; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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