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Tariff Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment and Poverty in Pakistan: a CGE-Based Analysis

  • Rizwana Siddiqui
  • Abdul Razzaq Kemal
  • Rehana Siddiqui
  • Ali Kemal

After more than four decades of protective trade policy, Pakistan undertook substantial trade liberalization beginning in the 1990s. We assess the short- and long-run impacts of trade liberalization (full and partial) on household incomes, welfare, and poverty under various fiscal scenarios. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Pakistan economy for the year 1990 is used with 10 household categories (identified by employment status in urban areas and by land holdings in rural areas), 12 production activities, and two factors of production. Our general conclusion is that trade reform improves the average welfare of urban households but reduces the welfare of rural households. In both regions, the rich generally benefit, whereas the poor lose out. The fall in urban poverty dominates the increase in rural poverty such that overall poverty is reduced.

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Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Working Papers MPIA with number 2008-17.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2008-17
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  1. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2006. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:9, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  2. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 383-415.
  3. Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "The Impact of Tariff Reforms on Income Distribution in Pakistan: A CGE-based Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 789-804.
  4. Rashid Amjad & A.R. Kemal, 1997. "Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 39-68.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521266550 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Papers 9909, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
  7. A. R. Kemal, 1981. "Substitution Elasticities in the Large- Scale Manufacturing Industries of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 1-36.
  8. Siddiqui, Rizwana & Iqbal, Zafar, 1999. "TARIFF REDUCTION AND FUNCTIONAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN PAKISTAN: A CGE Analysis," MPRA Paper 6141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. A.R. Kemal & Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui, 2001. "Triff Reduction and Income Destribution A CGE-based Analysis for Urban and Rural Households in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2001:181, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  10. Thorbecke, Erik, 1991. "Adjustment, growth and income distribution in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1595-1614, November.
  11. Moore, Mick & Leavy, Jennifer & Houtzager, Peter & White, Howard, 1999. "Polity qualities: how governance affects poverty," MPRA Paper 9467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Rizwana Siddiqui & Zafar Iqbal, 1999. "Social Accounting Matrix of Pakistan for 1989-90," PIDE-Working Papers 1999:171, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
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