External shocks, adjustment policies, and investment : illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines
This paper presents a model that integrates intertemporal and forward-looking behavior in investment and consumption decisions in a multisectoral general equilibrium framework applicable to developing countries. It formulates and uses an infinite-horizon growth model to examine the adjustment, growth, and debt problems of a middle-income country, which the author illustrates using data for the Philippines. The author concludes that the expectation is a key factor. Contrary to the common suggestion that an economy should adjust and contract in response to a permanent import price shock, the behavior suggested in a model with rational expectations in investment decisions is that the opposite can be true. Combined with other policies, tariff reform could rechannel investment and resources toward the more tradable sectors and exports can be emphasized and increased. If domestic resources are also mobilized through increased tax collection, the combined effect will be to reduce or slow the accumulation of foreign debt. In other words, middle-income countries like the Philippines missed a golden opportunity for policy reform in the 1970s and found it harder to implement adjustment policies under less favorable circumstances in the 1980s.
|Date of creation:||31 Aug 1991|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tanzi, Vito, 1986. "Fiscal Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 88-91, May.
- Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989.
"Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April.
- Lawrence H. Goulder & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Tax Policy, Asset Prices, and Growth: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 2128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-692, May.
- Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," NBER Working Papers 0885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck, 1981. "Activity analysis and general equilibrium modelling," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1649, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
- Solow, Robert M, 1988. "Growth Theory and After," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 307-317, June.
- Solow, Robert M., 1987. "Growth Theory and After," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1987-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 75-78, May.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
- Jere Behrman, 1982. "Country and Sectoral Variations in Manufacturing Elasticities of Substitution between Capital and Labor," NBER Chapters,in: Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, Volume 2: Factor Supply and Substitution, pages 159-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)