IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2814.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence H. Goulder

Abstract

This paper employs a general equilibrium model to assess the effects of major components of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on the performance of housing and other industries. The model considers both short-term and long-term effects on housing demands, house values, and investment in housing. Model results indicate that in the short run, the recent cuts incorporate tax rates, elimination of investment tax credits, and scaling back of depreciation deductions together have negative implications for investment in non-residential capital but positive effects on housing investment. This mainly reflects the fact that prior to the '86 tax reforms, investment tax credits and favorable depreciation rules disproportionately benefited non-housing industries; thus their removal especially affects industries other than housing and helps ?crowd in housing investment. Over the long term, however, the tax changes imply lower investment in housing as well as in other types of capital. The reduced housing investment stems from adverse effects of the reforms on aggregate output and real income.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Goulder, 1989. "Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment," NBER Working Papers 2814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2814
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2814.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T, 1980. "Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 59-75, February.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    4. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989. "Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April.
    5. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation," Working papers 343, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    6. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    7. Don Fullerton & Andrew B. Lyon, 1988. "Tax Neutrality and Intangible Capital," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 63-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1985. "Tax treatment of housing in a dynamic sequenced general equilibrium model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, July.
    9. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    10. Robert E. Hall, 1985. "Real Interest and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jorgenson, Dale W & Yun, Kun-Young, 1986. " Tax Policy and Capital Allocation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 355-377.
    12. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    13. Alan J. Auerbach, 1983. "Corporate Taxation in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 451-514.
    14. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    15. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321-321.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea J. Heuson & Gary Painter, 2011. "The Impact of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 on Housing Turnover in the U.S. Single Family Residential Market," Working Paper 8509, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    2. Anderson, John E. & Roy, Atrayee Ghosh, 2001. "Eliminating Housing Tax Preferences: A Distributional Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 41-58, March.
    3. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Thalmann, Philippe, 1993. "Approaches to efficient capital taxation : Leveling the playing field vs. living by the golden rule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 169-196, February.
    4. Lawrence H. Goulder, 1993. "Energy Taxes: Traditional Efficiency Effects and Environmental Implications," NBER Working Papers 4582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin S. Kay, 2015. "The Effects of Housing Adjustment Costs on Consumption Dynamics," Staff Discussion Papers 15-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    6. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    7. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    8. Zhicheng Zhou & Prapatchon Jariyapan, 2013. "The impact of macroeconomic policies to real estate market in People's Republic of China," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 75-92, September.
    9. Okumura, Tsunao, 1997. "Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan: An Asset Market Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-54, March.
    10. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2814. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.