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A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh

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  • James Thurlow
  • Paul Dorosh
  • Winston Yu

Abstract

Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladeshâ..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
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Suggested Citation

  • James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:412-428
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 150-165.
    2. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    3. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. del Ninno, Carlo & Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C. & Roy, Dilip K., 2001. "The 1998 floods in Bangladesh: disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and responses," Research reports 122, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Hassan, Rashid, 2010. "The double challenge of adapting to climate change while accelerating development in sub-Saharan Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 661-685, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 681-689.
    2. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. repec:ris:badest:0779 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:06:y:2015:i:01:n:s2010007815500037 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS

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