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An Economy-Wide Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture And Food Security In Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • ONIL BANERJEE

    () (CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia)

  • MOOGDHO MAHZAB

    () (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, E-17 Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh)

  • SELIM RAIHAN

    () (University of Dhaka and South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM), SANEM Dhaka Secretariat: Flat # K-5, House # 1/B, Road # 35, Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh)

  • NABIUL ISLAM

    () (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, E-17 Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh)

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change (CC) with higher temperatures reducing crop yields and sea level rise decreasing arable land supply. The Government of Bangladesh aspires to offer its people a comparable standard of living to that of middle-income countries by 2021. Bangladesh's population will reach 247 million by 2050 and GDP is projected to grow annually by 7.9%. With increasing population density, greater demand for resources, and CC impacts, adaptation and mitigation strategies will be required for agricultural output to meet growing food demand. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked with a food security module to explore CC impacts on agriculture and food security. Although CC impacts had a relatively small effect on GDP, reducing it by $29,925 million Taka (-0.11%) by 2030, agricultural sector impacts were felt more acutely, reducing output by -1.23%, increasing imports by 1.52%, and reducing total caloric consumption by 17%, with some households remaining underfed due to inequitable food distribution. Evidence generated here can guide policy to ensure economic growth contributes to meeting national development and food security targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Onil Banerjee & Moogdho Mahzab & Selim Raihan & Nabiul Islam, 2015. "An Economy-Wide Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture And Food Security In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:06:y:2015:i:01:n:s2010007815500037
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007815500037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    2. Ecker, Olivier & Breisinger, Clemens, 2012. "The food security system: A new conceptual framework," IFPRI discussion papers 1166, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
    4. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Shaikh Moniruzzaman, 2019. "Crop Diversification As Climate Change Adaptation: How Do Bangladeshi Farmers Perform?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Sudeshna Paul & Athula Naranpanawa & Jay Bandaralage & Tapan Sarker, 2018. "Climate change, crop productivity and regional growth disparity in Bangladesh: What does a district-level regional CGE model tell us?," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201803, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.

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