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A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh

  • Thurlow, James
  • Yu, Winston

Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladeshâ..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2011/wp2011-086.pdf
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Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/86.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-86
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  1. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Block, Paul J. & Strzepek, Kenneth & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Diao, Xinshen, 2006. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia:," EPTD discussion papers 150, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Zhu, Tingju & Rehdanz, Katrin & Tol, Richard S.J. & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 873, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. del Ninno, Carlo & Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C. & Roy, Dilip K., 2001. "The 1998 floods in Bangladesh: disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and responses," Research reports 122, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Hassan, Rashid, 2010. "The double challenge of adapting to climate change while accelerating development in sub-Saharan Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 661-685, December.
  6. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Paper Series wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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