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An Impact Study of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions

Author

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  • Lionel Fontagné
  • David Laborde
  • Cristina Mitaritonna

Abstract

This study intends to present a very detailed and dynamic analysis of the trade-related aspects of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiations. We use a dynamic partial equilibrium model – focusing on the demand side – at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two alternative lists of sensitive products are constructed, one giving priority to the agricultural sectors, the other focusing on tariff revenue preservation. In order to be WTO compatible, EPAs must translate into 90 percent of bilateral trade fully liberalised. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with the EPAs than under the GSP/EBA option. On average ACP countries are forecast to lose 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Yet imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus when tariff revenue losses are computed on total ACP imports, losses are limited to 26 percent on average in the long run and even 19 percent when the product lists are optimised. The final impact on the economy depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However this long term and less visible effect will mainly depend on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2008. "An Impact Study of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," Working Papers 2008-04, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2017. "Will Economic Partnership Agreements Increase Poverty? The Case of Uganda," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 353-382, May.
    2. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bouët Antoine & Laborde-Debucquet David & Dienesch Elisa & Elliott Kimberly, 2012. "The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Ole BOYSEN & Alan MATTHEWS, "undated". "Poverty Impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU," EcoMod2008 23800016, EcoMod.
    5. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David & Dienesch, Elisa & Elliot, Kimberly, 2010. "The costs and benefits of duty-free, quota-free market access for poor countries," IFPRI discussion papers 990, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Douillet, Mathilde, 2011. "Which trade integration scheme can best help Sub-Saharan Africa develop and export more processed agricultural goods?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1119, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2009. "The Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU: Trade and Poverty Impacts," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp307, IIIS.
    8. Renuka Mahadevan & John Asafu-Adjaye, 2013. "Unilateral Liberalisation or Trade Agreements: Which Way Forward for the Pacific?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1355-1372, October.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Senegal; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 08/221, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Hartmann, Simon, 2009. "Between ambitions and realities: The pathway of European Development Cooperation since Maastricht," Working Papers 24, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    11. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Bouet, Antoine & Mevel, Simon, 2008. "Economic partnership agreements between the European Union and African, Caribbean, and Pacific Countries: What is at stake for Senegal," IFPRI discussion papers 765, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preferential trade agreements; Africa; EPAs; Simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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