Poverty Impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU
This paper analyzes the poverty impacts of an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between Uganda and the EU. As Ugandan exports are also eligible for duty-free access to the EU under the Everything But Arms scheme the main impact of the EPA will be to require liberalization of EU exporters’ access to the Ugandan market. There are fears this could threaten the incomes of poor people through lower prices for agricultural commodities, the crowding out of vulnerable industries, and loss of government revenue. We examine these fears by means of a qualitative analysis using data from a 1999 social accounting matrix of the Ugandan economy and the 2002/2003 household budget survey. We then quantify the effects on the economy and poverty employing a combined CGE-microsimulation model. The qualitative analysis shows that the scope for trade liberalization with the EU is very limited and that particularly the poor have only weak links to formal markets. The quantitative analysis suggests that the macroeconomic impacts of an EPA are minor but positive, implying that the economic adjustment costs might turn out to be low. Whether the very small poverty effects are positive or not depends on the selection of sensitive products in the EPA, although under all scenarios the very poorest appear to lose.
|Date of creation:||04 Sep 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 01|
Phone: 00 353 1 896 3888
Fax: 00 353 1 896 3939
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Reconciliation of the GTAP and Household Survey Data," GTAP Research Memoranda 1408, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009.
"An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions,"
PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS
- Fontagne, Lionel & Laborde, David & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2008. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44194, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Iacus, Stefano M. & Porro, Giuseppe, 2007. "Missing data imputation, matching and other applications of random recursive partitioning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 773-789, October.
- Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2008. "An Impact Study of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," Working Papers 2008-04, CEPII research center.
- Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
- Geoffrey J Bannister, 2001. "International Trade and Poverty Alleviation," IMF Working Papers 01/54, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colette Keleher)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.