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An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions

  • Fontagne, Lionel
  • Laborde, David
  • Mitaritonna, Cristina

This article intends to present a very detailed analysis of the trade-related aspects of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiations. We use a dynamic partial equilibrium model – focusing on the demand side – at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two alternative lists of sensitive products are constructed, one giving priority to the agricultural sectors, the other focusing on tariff revenue preservation. In order to be WTO compatible, EPAs must translate into 90 percent of bilateral trade fully liberalised. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with the EPAs than under the GSP/EBA option. On average ACP countries are forecast to lose 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Yet imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus when tariff revenue losses are computed on total ACP imports, losses are limited to 26 percent on average in the long run and even 19 percent when the product lists are optimised. The final impact on the economy depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However this long term and less visible effect will mainly depend on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44194
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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44194.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44194
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  1. Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2008. "Specialization across varieties and North-South competition," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 51-91, 01.
  2. J Anderson & J.P. Neary, 1998. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0413, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  4. Alexander Keck & Roberta Piermartini, 2008. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements in Countries of the Southern African Development Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(1), pages 85-130, January.
  5. Hannah Chalplin & Alan Matthews, 2005. "Coping with the fallout for preference-receiving countries from EU sugar reform," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp100, IIIS.
  6. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2007. "Searching for an alternative to economic partnership agreements:," Research briefs 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Lang, Rémi & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," MPRA Paper 12875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2004. "Welfare versus Market Access: The Implications of Tariff Structure for Tariff Reform," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 601, Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Michael Gasiorek & L. Alan Winters, 2004. "What Role for the EPAs in the Caribbean?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9), pages 1335-1362, 09.
  10. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
  11. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-product Versus Within-product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(2), pages 646-677, May.
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