IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/not/notcre/07-09.html

The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on ACP Agriculture Imports and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Morrissey,
  • Evious Zgovu

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact on a sample of 36 ACP countries of eliminating tariffs on agricultural imports from the EU under EPAs, considering trade, welfare and revenue effects. Even assuming ‘immediate’ complete elimination of all tariffs on agriculture imports from the EU, and when excluding up to 20% of imports as sensitive products, over half of ACP countries are likely to experience welfare gains. However, although most LDCs gain (10 out of 13), most non-LDCs (about 60%) lose. The overall welfare effect relative to GDP tends to be very small, whether positive or negative. While potential tariff revenue losses are non-negligible, given that countries have at least ten years in which to implement the tariff reductions, there is scope for tax substitution. An important issue is identifying the sensitive products (SPs) to be excluded. In general, excluding SPs reduced the welfare gain (or increased the welfare loss) compared to estimates where no products are excluded.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Morrissey, & Evious Zgovu, 2007. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on ACP Agriculture Imports and Welfare," Discussion Papers 07/09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcre:07/09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/credit/documents/papers/07-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garth Frazer & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2010. "Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 128-144, February.
    2. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Regional Integration as Diplomacy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 271-295, May.
    3. Matthias Busse & Harald Grossmann, 2007. "The trade and fiscal impact of EU/ACP economic partnership agreements on West African countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 787-811.
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1974. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market: An Appraisal of the Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 42(2), pages 93-135, June.
    5. Rolf J. Langhammer, 1992. "The Developing Countries and Regionalism," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 211-232, June.
    6. repec:wbk:wbpubs:15172 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Imports and Implementation: Neglected Aspects of Trade in the Report of the Commission for Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 1133-1153.
    8. Karingi, Stephen & Lang, Rémi & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Sadni, Mustapha & Hammouda, Hakim Ben, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," Conference papers 331389, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
    10. Robert M. Stern & Jonathan Francis & Bruce Schumacher, 1976. "Price Elasticities in International Trade," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03137-5, April.
    11. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1995. "Trade Policy and Regional Integration: Implications for the Relations between Europe and Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 387-410, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2008. "Trade Facilitation in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 08/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    2. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2009. "EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements and ACP Integration," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Chris Jones & Oliver Morrissey, 2008. "Are Imports in Africa Responsive to Tariff Reductions?," Discussion Papers 08/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Rod Falvey & Annamaria La Chimia & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2008. "Competition Policy and Public Procurement in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 08/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    5. Chris Milner, & Oliver Morrissey, & Evious Zgovu, 2007. "Adjusting to Bilateral Trade Liberalisation under an EPA: Evidence for Mauritius," Discussion Papers 07/11, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    6. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2011. "Designing Economic Partnership Agreements To Promote Intra‐Regional Trade In Acp Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(4), pages 376-391, December.
    7. Oliver Morrissey, 2008. "Investment Provisions in Regional Integration Agreements for Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 08/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. Alisa Dicaprio & Silke Trommer, 2010. "Bilateral Graduation: The Impact of EPAs on LDC Trade Space," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 1607-1627.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fontagne, Lionel & Laborde, David & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2008. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44194, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Oliver Morrissey & Chris Jones, 2008. "Missed Opportunities: The WTO Trade Policy Review for the East African Community," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(11), pages 1409-1432, November.
    3. Morrissey, Oliver & Zgovu, Evious, 2008. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on African, Caribbean and Pacific Countries Imports and Welfare," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44205, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Chris Milner, & Oliver Morrissey, & Evious Zgovu, 2007. "Adjusting to Bilateral Trade Liberalisation under an EPA: Evidence for Mauritius," Discussion Papers 07/11, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    5. Vollmer, Sebastian & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Klann, Nils, 2009. "EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements - Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 39, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    6. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Co, Catherine Y. & Dimova, Ralitza, 2014. "Preferential Market Access into the Chinese Market: How Good is it for Africa?," IZA Discussion Papers 7908, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Eric Tremolada Álvarez (editor), 2013. "Repensando la integración y las integraciones," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, edition 1, volume 1, number 85.
    9. Frederik Stender & Axel Berger & Clara Brandi & Jakob Schwab, 2021. "The Trade Effects of the Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States: Early Empirical Insights from Panel Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1495-1515, November.
    10. Axel Borrmann & Matthias Busse & Manuel De La Rocha, 2007. "Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 233-253.
    11. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2011. "Designing Economic Partnership Agreements To Promote Intra‐Regional Trade In Acp Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(4), pages 376-391, December.
    12. Karingi, Stephen & Perez, Romain & Oulmane, Nassim & Lang, Rémi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "Assessment of the Impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the COMESA countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 13294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & Staritz, Cornelia & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using TRIST (tariff reform impact simulation tool)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5045, The World Bank.
    15. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2009. "EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements and ACP Integration," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    16. Kore Marc Guei, 2019. "Does financial structure matter for economic growth: evidence from South Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1941-1957.
    17. Stender, Frederik & Berger, Axel & Brandi, Clara & Schwab, Jakob, 2020. "The trade effects of the economic partnership agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of states: Early empirical insights from panel data," IDOS Discussion Papers 7/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    18. Tanaka, Kiyoyasu & Fukunishi, Takahiro, 2022. "Rules of origin and exports in developing economies: The case of garment products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Edgar Ntasano, 2010. "The Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union," Insight on Africa, , vol. 2(2), pages 145-155, July.
    20. Jean-Marc Philip, 2006. "Le recours aux MEGC pour l’analyse de l’accord de partenariat économique entre l’union européenne et les pays ACP : une revue de la littérature," CAE Working Papers 92, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notcre:07/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hilary Hughes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenotuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.