IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpco/0410004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Economic Impacts of Incorporating Romania's Agricultural and Food Sectors into EU's Customs Union: an Applied General Equilibrium Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Serban S. Scrieciu

    (Institute for Development Policy & Management, School of Environment & Development, University of Manchester)

Abstract

Joining the European Union club implies, among many other policy changes, full integration of Romania's economy into EU's customs union. This is expected to have significant implications for domestic farmers and food processors. The paper constructs a single-country Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model to investigate the impact of tariff border adjustments on changes in relative prices, production and trade patterns associated with fifteen local agro-food activities. Moreover, the modelling work identifies those agro-food sectors that have the potential to benefit the most from EU enlargement in terms of output effects given that Romanian producers are capable of fully responding to the incentives provided with integration. These mainly include (bovine) live animals and meat products, sugar, and cereal grains. Agro-food trade with EU intensifies in particular for those commodities for which trade restrictions are still substantial prior to accession. However, the magnitude of changes is relatively small due to the weak integration of domestic agro-food sectors into international trade structures. The AGE model also predicts static welfare gains of 0.65 percent of GDP equivalent variation. These seem to be more associated with better access to EU markets and increased export prices, and less with the preferential unilateral elimination of tariffs or their adjustment to EU's external levels. The model assumptions are highly theoretical and the model structure does not reflect with fidelity the workings of an economy in transition. Nonetheless, it does represent a solid base upon which further improvements could be added and structural transitional issues could be attached to more accurately predict potential outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Serban S. Scrieciu, 2004. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Incorporating Romania's Agricultural and Food Sectors into EU's Customs Union: an Applied General Equilibrium Approach," Computational Economics 0410004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0410004
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 38. The paper was first published in 2004 as IDPM Development Economics and Public Policy Working Paper No.5, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM), University of Manchester.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/comp/papers/0410/0410004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McDaniel, Christine A. & Balistreri, Edward J., 2002. "A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities," Working Papers 15856, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    2. Frank Fuller & John Beghin & Samarendu Mohanty & Jay Fabiosa & Cheng Fang & Phil Kaus, 1999. "The Impact of the Berlin Accord and European Enlargement on Dairy Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(5), pages 117-130, December.
    3. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Regional Integration as Diplomacy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 271-295, May.
    4. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    6. Herok, Claudia A. & Lotze, Hermann, 2000. "Implications of an EU Eastern Enlargement Under a New Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 661-690, November.
    7. Mordechai E. Kreinin & Michael G. Plummer, 2002. "Economic Integration and Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2426.
    8. Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Applied general equilibrium analysis of agricultural and resource policies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1373-1419, Elsevier.
    9. Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Applied general equilibrium analysis of agricultural and resource policies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1373-1419, Elsevier.
    10. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. De Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series 585, CESifo.
    11. Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15172, April.
    12. Erno Zalai, 1998. "Computable Equilibrium Modelling and Application to Economies in Transition," CERT Discussion Papers 9804, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    13. Wonnacott, Paul & Wonnacott, Ronald, 1981. "Is Unilateral Tariff Reduction Preferable to a Customs Union? The Curious Case of the Missing Foreign Tariffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 704-714, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scrieciu, Silviu Serban & Blake, Adam, 2003. "General Equilibrium Modelling Applied to Romania (GEMAR): Focusing on the Agricultural and Food Sectors," Development Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 30544, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scrieciu, Silviu Serban & Blake, Adam, 2003. "General Equilibrium Modelling Applied to Romania (GEMAR): Focusing on the Agricultural and Food Sectors," Development Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 30544, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
    2. Alexandre Gohin & Herve Guyomard & Chantal Le Mouël, 2006. "Tariff protection elimination and Common Agricultural Policy reform: implications of changes in methods of import demand modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1527-1539.
    3. Miguel, Carlos de & O'Ryan, Raúl & Pereira, Mauricio & Carriquiri, Bruno, 2009. "Energy shocks, fiscal policy and CO2 emissions in Chile," Conference papers 331817, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Tobias Müller & Jean-Marie Grether, 2002. "Long-Run Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy for Switzerland: A Simulation Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(III), pages 271-292, September.
    5. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    6. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    7. Kaminski, Bartlomiej, 2006. "Bulgaria's institutions and policies : integrating into Pan-European markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3864, The World Bank.
    8. Siddig, Khalid H.A. & Flaig, Dorothee & Luckmann, Jonas & Grethe, Harald, 2011. "A 2004 Social Accounting Matrix for Israel: Documentation of an Economy-Wide Database with a Focus on Agriculture, the Labour Market, and Income Distribution," Working Papers 110156, Universitaet Hohenheim, Institute of Agricultural Policy and Agricultural Markets.
    9. Ricardo Argüello & Daniel Valderrama-Gonzalez, 2015. "Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 259-280, March.
    10. Edward J. Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G. Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Working Papers 2016-07, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    11. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    12. Whalley, John & Xin, Xian, 2009. "Home and regional biases and border effects in Armington type models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 309-319, March.
    13. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
    14. Jim Rose & Wayne Stevens, 2004. "Global Connectedness and Bilateral Economic Linkages - Which Countries?," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. Will Bartlett, 2009. "Regional integration and free-trade agreements in the Balkans: opportunities, obstacles and policy issues," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 25-46, May.
    16. Jensen, Hans G. & Frandsen, Søren E., 2003. "Implications of EU Accession of Ten New Members: The Copenhagen Agreement," Conference papers 331098, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Schiff,Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2003. "Regional integration and technology diffusion : the case of the North America free trade agreement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3132, The World Bank.
    18. Gohin, Alexandre, 2003. "The Specification of Price and Income Elasticities in Computable General Equilibrium Models: An Application of Latent Separability," Conference papers 331096, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Tao Xiang & Jikun Huang & d’Artis Kancs & Scott Rozelle & Jo Swinnen, 2012. "Food Standards and Welfare: General Equilibrium Effects," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 223-244, June.
    20. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; Customs union; Agriculture; Romania; AGE modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0410004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.