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An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    () (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • David Laborde

    () (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Cristina Mitaritonna

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

This article provides a very detailed analysis of the trade-related aspects of Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations. We use a partial equilibrium model - focusing on the demand side - at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two lists of sensitive products are constructed, focusing on the agricultural sectors, and tariff revenue preservation. For the European Union, EPAs must translate into 90 percent fully liberalized bilateral trade to be World Trade Organization (WTO) compatible,. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with EPAs, than under the GSP/EBA option. ACP countries are forecast to lose an average of 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run, while imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus, if we compute tariff revenue losses on total ACP imports, losses are only 26 percent on average over the long run and as low as 19 percent of the product lists are optimized. The final impact depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However, this long term and less visible effect will depend mainly on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganize its fiscal base.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00967434, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:gmonwp:halshs-00967434
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00967434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2008. "Specialization across varieties and North-South competition," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 51-91, January.
    2. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    3. Alexander Keck & Roberta Piermartini, 2008. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements in Countries of the Southern African Development Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(1), pages 85-130, January.
    4. Chaplin, Hannah & Matthews, Alan, 2006. "Coping with the Fallout for Preference-receiving Countries from EU Sugar Reform," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17.
    5. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2003. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 627-649, May.
    6. Anderson, James E. & Neary, J. Peter, 2007. "Welfare versus market access: The implications of tariff structure for tariff reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 187-205, March.
    7. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David & Mevel, Simon, 2007. "Searching for an alternative to economic partnership agreements:," Research briefs 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Michael Gasiorek & L. Alan Winters, 2004. "What Role for the EPAs in the Caribbean?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9), pages 1335-1362, September.
    9. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Lang, Rémi & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," MPRA Paper 12875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ole BOYSEN & Alan MATTHEWS, "undated". "Poverty Impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU," EcoMod2008 23800016, EcoMod.
    3. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2009. "The Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU: Trade and Poverty Impacts," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp307, IIIS.
    4. Lin, J., 2018. "The role of institutions in international coconut trade: a gravity model approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277012, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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