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Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration

Author

Listed:
  • David Roland-Holst

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Jean-Pierre Verbiest

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Fan Zhai

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

With the emergence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have changed. Using a new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.

Suggested Citation

  • David Roland-Holst & Jean-Pierre Verbiest & Fan Zhai, 2005. "Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 76-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbadr:2223
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Bollard & Mark Smith, 2006. "Major global developments in the new millennium," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-14., June.
    2. Nana Asimeng Peasah & Barnes Evans John, 2016. "Analysis of the Nexus between Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Panel Study Of Brics Countries," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 455-471, December.
    3. Dilip K. Das, 2008. "South Asia's Integration with the Rest of Asia: a survey," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 22(1), pages 25-40, May.
    4. D’Artis Kancs, 2010. "Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 270-288, September.
    5. repec:gig:soaktu:v:29:y:2010:i:2:p:73-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Peter A. Petri & Fan Zhai, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Dollar, David, 2007. "Asian century or multi-polar century ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4174, The World Bank.
    8. Brooks, Douglas H. & Roland-Holst, David & Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 40-52, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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